Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/19/2010
September Wheat settled down 5 at 582 1/4, 15 1/2 off the high and 7 up from the low. December Wheat ended down 4 1/2 at 611 1/2. This was 7 up from the low and 14 off the high.
December wheat traded higher overnight in the face of a substantial sell off in corn. The market joined corn and soybeansin moving lower to start the day session, taking out Friday’s low in the process. December wheat then trimmed its losses over the remainder of the session, closing above Friday’s lows and gaining ground on the July 2011 contract in the process. This week’s export inspections for wheat were 22.4 million bushels, up sharply from last week’s 14.3 million. Inspections need to average 19.4 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2010/11. Traders said that support came from a large wheat sale to Iraq that included US wheat. Recent sales into the huge Middle Eastern market have generally not included any US wheat due to higher shipping costs and higher underlying prices in comparison to wheat shipped from Russia and Western Europe. India made a small downward revision in its 2009 wheat crop which some traders saw as part of the broader recent trend toward smaller wheat crops in Europe, Canada and elsewhere. Wheat posted a substantial gain on corn on the day in moderately active trade by spreaders.
December Oats ended down 7 at 268. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 6 off the high.
Soybean Complex Market Review for 7/19/2010
August Soybeans closed down 11 1/2 at 1008, 14 1/4 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. November Soybeans finished down 13 at 972. This was 14 3/4 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low.
August Soybean Oil settled down 0.35 at 37.96, 0.39 off the high and 0.14 up from the low.
August Soymeal settled down 2.8 at 305.0. This was 3.0 up from the low and 5.3 off the high.
November soybeans started lower overnight and then made new lows to start the day session. The November contract made a further series of minor new lows into early afternoon, before staging a modest bounce prior to the close. US weather forecasts took a more positive turn to start the week, especially for the northern and NW Midwest today and tomorrow, with ample rains expected in the region along with temperatures below 90 degrees during that timeframe. A surge in temperatures is expected at the end of the week, with a cooler air system moving into much of the Midwest into the weekend. Meal lost ground to oil early in the day, but it recovered some of its lost ground by the end of the day. This week’s export inspections for soybeans were 6.85 million bushels, near unchanged from 6.99 million last week. Inspections need to average 11.87 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10. Traders said that specs, commission houses and funds were sellers to start the week. The larger-than-expected net long position held by trading funds in soybeans as reported on Friday’s Commitments of Traders report was also considered a negative factor on the day.
Corn Market Recap for 7/19/2010
September Corn ended down 13 1/4 at 381 1/2, 9 3/4 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. December Corn settled down 13 1/4 at 394. This was 9 1/2 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low.
December corn opened sharply lower overnight and then struggled to recover for the rest of that session. The market then pushed below the overnight lows to start the day session before extending those losses into early afternoon. Traders are looking forward to this afternoon’s Crop Progress report with some expecting a small reduction in the good-to-excellent rating which stood at 73% on last week’s report. This week’s export inspections for corn were 38.9 million bushels, about unchanged from last week. Inspections need to average 49.9 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10. Weather over the weekend and into the start of this week looks less damaging than traders expected as of the end of last week. This is especially true in the northern and NW Corn Belt. Forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains this week in a broad band stretching from eastern Nebraska through Ohio which would further boost needed soil moisture in the eastern Midwest.
September Rice finished up 0.14 at 9.995, 0.025 off the high and equal to the low.
With today’s commentarytalking mostly weather and the crop progress resport, traders might want to take a peek at the commercial traders momentum. The Commercial Trader momentum can be tracked by using the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commitment of Traders reports. Our idea is that, in a value driven commodity futures market no one knows fair value like the people who produce it or, have to use it. In fact, it is precisely their sense of value that provides the commodity market’s rhythmic meanderings that swing traders love so much. Let’s face it, producers know when their product is overvalue and it should be sold just as well as end line users know when they should be stocking up at low prices. Therefore, trader should be able to incorporate this valuable information into their future market education.
This blog is publicized by Andy Waldock. Andy Waldock is a financial advisor, analyst, broker, asset manager and traderfor Commodity & Derivative Advisors, located in Sandusky, Ohio. Therefore, Andy Waldock may have positions for himself, his clients, or his family in any commodity future market reviewed. The blog is meant to develop a discussion and educate those with an interest in the commodity future markets. The commodity markets employ a high degree of leverage and commodity trading may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in the commodity futures could result in substantial risk. If you are interested in reading other circulated articles, commenting on his publications or subscribing to Andy’s blog, please visit http://blog.commodityandderivativeadv.com, or if you have any questions, please call 1-866-990-0777.
The daily commentaries provide an analysis of the factors that influenced price activity, a recap of any reports released that day, a recap of each commodity’s traded price activity, and a look ahead at the schedule for the next day. Market commentaries for corn, wheat, soybeans, silver and gold are provided by CME Group. The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.